By Fitch Solutions anticipates that Ghana’s oil production will rebound in 2024, with an expected increase of 5.0% to 177,120 barrels per day (b/d).
This recovery is attributed to Tullow Oil’s extensive drilling campaign at Jubilee and TEN.
However, there might be a temporary plateau following this surge until the commencement of production at Pecan, which is not projected until at least 2027.
“Our expectation for oil production remains bullish but contingent on Pecan reaching FID [Final Investment Decision] this year. Following operational setbacks in 2023 that led to a significant decline in production from the Jubilee and TEN fields, we project a rebound in oil production growth in 2024, with an anticipated increase of 5.0% to 177,120 barrels per day (b/d), it said.
“If Pecan’s FID is confirmed by the end of 2024, we foresee Ghana’s oil production reaching its peak at 238,980 b/d in 2029. This projection is cautious, considering the persistent historical delays in Pecan’s FID over the past three years. While drilling will pause in 2024, it is slated to resume and conclude in 2025, suggesting continued investment in and development of Ghana’s oil production capabilities”, it added.
Fitch Solutions noted that the challenges faced in the Jubilee and TEN fields in 2023 had significant repercussions, resulting in a notable decline in production during the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2022 (12.0% at Jubilee and 17.5% in TEN).
“Issues such as flow assurance problems, reduced water injection, and temporary halts in well operations were to blame. Although these issues have since been resolved, they led to estimated declines of 9.5% in crude and condensate production 2023”, it mentioned.
