By In most cases, records in boxing are blown way out of proportion. A fighter loses once and his promoter is often ready to dump him and fans are ready to turn on him. Back in the days when fighters signed long-term deals to appear on a premium cable network, the networks had the ability to axe a fighter’s contract if he lost.
It’s never made sense, because beating a collection of tomato cans in succession doesn’t make one a great fighter, and losing to a great fighter doesn’t make one a bum.
More often than not, that’s the way it rolls in boxing, though, particularly when big fights come around.
That’s what makes the case of Jaime Munguia so interesting. On Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in a fight streamed by PPV.com and Prime Video, the 43-0 Munguia will challenge Canelo Alvarez for the undisputed super middleweight championship. Munguia is getting precious little respect from the bettors.
At Draft Kings sports book, Alvarez is a whopping -525 favorite to win, with Munguia at +385. At BetMGM, Alvarez is -550 with Munguia at +350. And at William Hill, Alvarez is up to -600 with Munguia available at +430. A -600 favorite is expected to win 85.7 percent of the time.
Part of that is the level of opposition they’ve faced. Alvarez has fought a who’s who of the greatest fighters of the last 20 years, including facing Hall of Famers Floyd Mayweather, Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto. The best on Munguia’s resume are Sadam Ali, Liam Smith, Sergiy Derevyanchenko and John Ryder. They’re all boxers, but one group is decidedly different than the other.
Alvarez is one of the pound-for-pound best boxers in the world, and he’s ranked No. 5 on KevinIole.com. Munguia, despite that glittering 43-0 record and 34 knockouts, is unranked.
He’s suffered through a lot of disrespect in his career, particularly in Nevada. In 2018 when Alvarez had a positive drug test force a delay in a rematch with Gennadiy Golovkin, Golovkin promoter Tom Loeffler chose Munguia to fight Golovkin. But Bob Bennett, then the executive director of the Nevada Athletic Commission, refused to sanction the match, saying Munguia wasn’t qualified to face Golovkin.
Golovkin almost certainly would have won, but time has proven that, indeed, Munguia was qualified for that bout.
He’s not all that concerned now, six years later, as he’s in his prime and fighting for the undisputed title against one of the biggest names in the sport.
He’s only heading into his second bout with trainer Freddie Roach, and Roach told KevinIole.com after his win over Ryder in January that he preferred to have at least one more fight before heading into an Alvarez bout so he could work with Munguia on improving his defense. Munguia is an offensive fighter and is never going to be compared to Willie Pep no matter what he does, but Roach felt one additional bout would help him tighten things enough to give Munguia his best chance of beating Alvarez.
But when Alvarez offered the bout, there was no saying no. To decline it would have been career suicide, and Munguia and Roach are no fools.
And Munguia knows what has gotten him to where he is: Offense. He throws often, and he’s a hard enough hitter that opponents just can’t wade through it to attack him. Alvarez has a legendarily good chin, but he’ll have to respect Munguia’s power.
“This is going to be an interesting fight and we’re going to come after him,” Munguía said. “We’re going to look for him in the ring, and in the end it’s going to be an amazing fight for the fans.”
An attacking Munguia will make for the most entertaining fight, and it says here that there will be moments in the fight when everyone in the building on Saturday will be on their feet roaring as Alvarez and Munguia trade.
Munguia is good enough to win, though that’s not a prediction that he’ll do so. It’s an acknowledgement that he, too, is an elite professional and has the tools necessary to get the job done.
Alvarez’s diverse attack, his strong chin and his mindset carry him in most outings, and will probably do so on Saturday. Munguia has never been in such a high-profile situation, and was life-and-death with a long-past-his-prime Derevyanchenko on June 10, 2023, in one of last year’s finest fights. That doesn’t inspire confidence that he’s going to take out Alvarez.
To overlook him, though, would be a mistake. He’s a world-class fighter and he’s got plenty of skills, as well.
It should be fun on Saturday, for however long it lasts. And if Munguia goes down, know he’ll at least let Alvarez know he’s been in a fight.
by Kevin Iole
