Professor of Finance at the University of Ghana Business School and economist, Professor Godfred Bokpin, has cautioned that Ghana’s decision to join the BRICS economic bloc should not be viewed as a substitute for the domestic reforms required to transform the economy.
He said while BRICS membership could create new economic opportunities and deepen Ghana’s engagement with emerging global markets, it would not, on its own, guarantee improved economic fortunes.
Professor Bokpin stressed that the benefits of joining the bloc would depend largely on Ghana’s ability to implement the necessary structural and institutional reforms at home.
Speaking on the Joy FM Super Morning Show on Thursday, October 8, during a discussion on Ghana’s bid to join BRICS, Prof. Bokpin said the country must remain focused on building and managing a competitive economy, irrespective of its international affiliations.
“I think we should just bear in mind that BRICS is still evolving, even within the original founding members, in terms of the framework, where exactly this is heading towards, and all of that. And so there are quite a lot of nuances that would have to be ironed out of that,” he said.
He said Ghana should not expect membership of BRICS to bring about an immediate transformation of the economy.
“But it is good to also say that merely joining BRICS necessarily does not transform your economy overnight, or even over a 15-year period,” Prof Bokpin said.
“It is not a substitute for what you have to do in managing your own economy competitively, and all of that.”
Despite his caution, Prof. Bokpin said he supports the government’s decision to pursue BRICS membership, noting that the global economic order is evolving and Ghana must position itself to take advantage of emerging opportunities.
“If I look at it from an economic perspective, it’s a good move that the government plans to join BRICS. That is where the world is heading towards, and that is a fact,” he said.
He pointed to the growing economic influence of BRICS, noting that the combined economic strength of its members had become significant enough to rival that of traditional Western-led economic blocs.
“If you look at the commanding position of BRICS within the global economy today, the combined GDP of BRICS, especially across the 11 founding members, and then also the 10 partner countries today, actually exceeds the GDP of the G7 that we used to know,” he said.
According to Prof. Bokpin, the bloc now represents a significant share of the global economy, with its member countries continuing to show strong prospects for economic growth.
“It accounts for almost 40 percent of the global GDP. The BRICS member countries have higher growth potential today than literally any other economic bloc you can think about,” he said.
Prof. Bokpin said long-term economic projections suggest that BRICS countries are likely to play an increasingly important role in the global economy.
He noted that China is projected to remain the world’s largest economy by 2050, with the United States expected to rank second.
“It may interest you to know that by 2050, three out of the top five big economies globally will all be BRICS members,” he said.
“Three out of the top five by 2050.”
He said the anticipated shift in the global economic order could also help explain the growing tensions between the United States and China.
“In fact, by 2050, China will be number one, and the U.S. will be number two in terms of the global economic order,” Prof Bokpin said.
“You can understand this also gives you a perspective as to the tension between the U.S. and China and all of that. It’s all playing out carefully within the global geopolitics, and how the global order, some want it to be rewritten in a certain way, and all of that.”
Looking further ahead, Prof. Bokpin said economic projections for 2075 point to an even greater presence of BRICS countries among the world’s largest economies.
He said four of the five largest economies are projected to be BRICS members by then.
“And that said, it’s also important to look at the world economic projections. By 2075, the top five economies in the world measured in USD, actually there will only be one that will not be a BRICS member,” he said.
“So four out of the top five big economies by 2075, four of them will be BRICS members.”
He also highlighted Nigeria’s projected rise among the world’s largest economies, attributing the country’s potential growth to the strength of its private sector and the role of major entrepreneurs.
“In fact, the projection is that by 2075, Nigeria will be in the top five. And this may surprise a lot of people,” he said.
Prof Bokpin, however, cautioned against treating such projections as certainties.
“I’m not asking people to put on faith to believe in this,” he said, explaining that the projection was based partly on the potential of Nigeria’s large entrepreneurs and the transformation of its private sector.
He said Nigeria’s economic transformation would not depend solely on government efforts but could also be driven by the country’s leading entrepreneurs and private-sector players.
“The understanding is that if you look at what Nigeria is doing, the transformation is going to come from big Nigerian entrepreneurs, billionaires, who have decided, and it’s not just Aliko Dangote,” he said.
Prof. Bokpin said Ghana was already witnessing the growing influence of emerging economies through its deepening economic ties with China, despite not being a member of BRICS.
He said the country must recognise the shifting dynamics of global trade and position itself to respond effectively to these changes.
“So if you put all of that together, and we have no joint business, actually, but today, China has literally taken over our markets, whether you like it or not, right?” he said.
“So the traffic today is within the Ghana-China corridor as compared to our traditional import-oriented countries and all of that. So we need to just look at all of that.”
He said these developments provided a strong economic rationale for Ghana to consider deeper engagement with BRICS, while noting that other factors would also need to be carefully assessed.
“So in terms of where the world is moving towards and all of that, it will look to me that it’s a good decision. Of course, I’m looking at it purely from an economics perspective,” Prof Bokpin said.
“There may be geopolitical, there may be other considerations that would also have to come to the table and all of that.”
Prof Bokpin, however, cautioned that Ghana should not expect BRICS membership to resolve its economic challenges.
“So specifically for Ghana, I think that merely joining BRICS would not necessarily transform our economy,” he said.