Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson is expected to present the 2027 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to Parliament today, Thursday, November 12, setting out the government’s economic outlook, proposed fiscal measures, revenue mobilisation strategies and expenditure priorities for the coming year.
The budget is expected to outline how the government plans to consolidate economic stability while creating room for investment, infrastructure development and job creation under its New Economy agenda.
The proposed fiscal framework comes against the backdrop of Ghana’s economic performance in 2026.
Real GDP growth rose to 6 per cent in the second quarter, exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4.8 per cent. Inflation also declined to 5.5 per cent in October, falling below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6 to 10 per cent.
The primary balance posted a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, compared with the full-year target of 1.5 per cent. Meanwhile, gross international reserves reached 4.2 months of import cover in August, exceeding the minimum target of three months.
Building on these developments, the government is expected to set out a range of economic targets for 2027, signalling its continued emphasis on macroeconomic stability while stepping up efforts to drive investment and economic growth.
Macroeconomic Indicators
The government is targeting a minimum real GDP growth rate of 5 per cent in 2027, with non-oil GDP growth also projected at 5 per cent. Inflation is expected to close the year at 8 per cent, within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6 to 10 per cent.
On the fiscal front, the government is projecting a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, compared with the 1.5 per cent target set for 2026. The reduced target points to a less aggressive pace of fiscal consolidation, potentially allowing greater fiscal space for development expenditure.
The government is also aiming to increase gross international reserves to at least six months of import cover, twice the three-month minimum target set for 2026. Public debt is meanwhile projected to decline to 43 per cent of GDP.
These projections will serve as key indicators for measuring the government’s economic performance and its capacity to pursue development priorities while maintaining fiscal discipline.
Revenue Mobilisation and Spending Priorities
Revenue mobilisation is expected to remain a key pillar of the government’s financing strategy in 2027.
Total revenue and grants are projected at GH¢314 billion, representing 17.3 per cent of GDP. Domestic revenue is expected to contribute GH¢310.8 billion, while gross non-oil tax revenue is estimated at GH¢264.3 billion.
The government’s revenue mobilisation efforts are expected to centre on improving tax compliance, strengthening customs administration, expanding the tax base and addressing revenue leakages.
Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Nyarko Ampem has indicated that the government does not intend to introduce new taxes in the 2027 Budget. Instead, it plans to create additional fiscal space through expenditure rationalisation and savings from reduced public spending.
Under the expenditure framework, compensation of employees is projected at GH¢104.1 billion, while capital spending is estimated at GH¢89.7 billion. Transfers to other government units are expected to amount to GH¢76.3 billion, with interest payments accounting for a further GH¢61.3 billion.
Attention will focus on how the government intends to manage competing spending demands, particularly the balance between recurrent expenditure and capital investment. It will also be important to see how development projects will be protected while keeping public sector wage costs and debt-servicing obligations under control.
US$10 Billion New Economy Investment Programme
A major component of the government’s economic growth strategy is the proposed US$10 billion New Economy investment programme, which is expected to run from 2027 to 2030.
The initiative is designed to shift the economy from stabilisation towards increased production, industrial expansion, value addition and employment generation.
The 2027 Budget is expected to spell out the programme’s financing structure and implementation framework, including measures to mobilise domestic funding and attract private-sector investment.
Key sectors identified under the programme include commercial agriculture and agribusiness, energy, critical minerals and value addition, textiles and garments, tourism, the creative arts and pharmaceutical manufacturing.
The government is also expected to provide details of funding arrangements for major initiatives, including the Big Push infrastructure programme, the 24-Hour Economy and the Gold Refining Initiative.
The Big Push programme has been allocated GH¢27.5 billion, to be financed through a combination of domestic resources and the Annual Budget Funding Amount.
Meanwhile, the Gold Refining Initiative aims to establish local refining capacity to process at least one metric tonne of gold weekly.
Fiscal Reforms and Accountability
In addition to its investment plans, the 2027 Budget is expected to introduce measures to strengthen public financial management, improve fiscal oversight and ensure more effective use of public resources.
Among the proposed reforms are plans to make the Fiscal Council fully operational from 2027 and restore uncapped statutory transfers to the National Health Insurance Scheme, GETFund, the Road Maintenance Trust Fund and the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation.
These measures are intended to reinforce fiscal accountability and improve the management and allocation of public funds.
The International Monetary Fund has also stressed the importance of stronger project appraisal processes, competitive procurement practices and stricter expenditure controls to ensure value for money under the New Economy programme.
Ultimately, the success of the 2027 Budget will depend not only on its economic projections and financial allocations but also on the government’s ability to translate its policy commitments into measurable results.
For businesses and households, the key test will be whether the proposed revenue measures, investment priorities and fiscal reforms can stimulate business growth, boost productivity, create sustainable employment and improve living standards while safeguarding the country’s fiscal stability.
