The National Democratic Congress (NDC) is projected to lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections, according to the first seat projection released by Global InfoAnalytics.
The research organisation’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model estimates that the NDC could win 154 seats, down from the 183 seats it secured in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
The forecast suggests a 29-seat decline in the NDC’s parliamentary strength, although the party would retain a majority in the 276-member Parliament.
The New Patriotic Party (NPP), on the other hand, is projected to increase its parliamentary seats from 88 in 2024 to 100 in 2028, marking a potential gain of 12 seats.
The projection leaves 22 constituencies undecided, comprising 20 classified as “not disclosed” and two identified as toss-ups.
The Eastern Region records the highest number of undisclosed seats, with five, followed by the Ashanti Region with four. The Western Region has three, while the Upper East Region has two.
The Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono regions each have one constituency classified as “not disclosed”.
The two toss-up constituencies are in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
The projections put the NDC’s share of parliamentary seats at 55.8 per cent, compared with 36.2 per cent for the NPP. The 20 undisclosed constituencies account for 7.2 per cent, while the two toss-up seats represent 0.7 per cent.
If the projections materialise, the governing NDC could enter the next Parliament with a reduced majority.
However, the projected loss of 29 seats is an estimate and not a definitive indication of the 2028 election outcome. Global InfoAnalytics has not revealed the party preferences in the 20 constituencies classified as “not disclosed”, while the two toss-up seats remain too close to call.
